Tottenham - the Final Day Conundrum

Thirty seven matches played, the hard work done, but Spurs' destiny for the season now depends on those final day results.  To be guaranteed a place in next season's Champions League Spurs must finish in third but if Chelsea win this year's competition, it will be via the final play-off round in August.  

Battle for Champions League finish

For ninety minutes last weekend against Aston Villa, Spurs were in control of their own destiny.  Arsenal's home draw with Norwich City had provided them with the opportunity to leapfrog Arsenal and move into third position if they could get three points at Villa Park.  The draw which seemed to satisfy Harry Redknapp, once he knew that Newcastle United had lost to Manchester City handed the initiative back to Arsenal with one match remaining.

Season 1995 - 96
Chelsea's defeat at Anfield on Tuesday evening removes them from the equation for third, fourth and fifth.  Spurs will finish above Chelsea for the first time since season 1995-96.  That was a season when Gerry Francis oversaw our eighth place finish with Chelsea in eleventh.  The Spurs' team included Ian Walker and Teddy Sheringham who were ever presents, Chris Armstrong, Justin Edinburgh, Jason Dozzell, Colin Calderwood, Dean Austin, David Howells, Ronnie Rosenthal, Ruel Fox, Clive Wilson and Gary Mabbutt.  Darren Anderton started six games, making a late successful claim for a place in  the England team for Euro96 by appearing in the last four games of the season and scoring twice in a win at Leeds United.

Battle for the Champions League
Tottenham, Arsenal and Newcastle United are in contention to finish third, fourth or fifth in the Premier League.  With one match to play, Arsenal hold the advantage with a single point lead over Spurs who are one point ahead of Newcastle.  The goal difference column again gives Arsenal a one goal advantage over Spurs with Newcastle the poor relations in this regard.  Let's hope that Spurs will not regret strolling through two goal home victories earlier in the season when they had created sufficient opportunities to have recorded a significant win.

If Tottenham win against Martin Jol's Fulham team who are currently in ninth place with 52 points,  they would finish with 69 points.  That would mean that Arsenal would have to take all three points at West Bromwich Albion where Roy Hodgson will have his last game in charge before taking over as England manager.  If Arsenal were to lose then Spurs would finish third with the other placing dependent on Newcastle's result at Everton.

If Tottenham draw then their near neighbours can remain above them with a draw or a single goal defeat as they have the goal difference in their favour.  Defeat by two goals and Spurs would gain the advantage over Arsenal but Newcastle could move into third with a win at Goodison Park.

If Spurs lose at home to Fulham for the first time since August, 2003, their best place finish would be fourth as long as Newcastle have failed to take the three points from Everton.

For Spurs to have any chance of finishing third Arsenal must not win at the Hawthorns.  To be certain of Champions League qualification Spurs need to be third as Chelsea have the opportunity to deny the fourth placed team by defeating Bayern Munich in this year's final.  If they were to win, the third placed team would have to take part in the final play-off round in August.

The need for Spurs to finish third and Chelsea not to win this year's competition is immense as Tottenham's summer transfer dealings, both in and possible outs, would be greatly complicated by having to wait for the guarantee of the finances associated with reaching the Champions League Group stages which Daniel Levy will require before committing outlay on top players who will be reluctant to sign unless they also have that Champions League guarantee.

In past seasons the final day excitement usually centred on which teams would be dropping out of the Premier League.  This season, however, there is the contest between the two Manchester clubs to win the title, there is the battle between Bolton and QPR for the Premier League lives but there will also be a very intriguing battle for the Champions League.  There are sure to be twists and turns on Sunday with the final outcome continuing to be uncertain until after the Champions League Final in Munich on 19th May.

Spurs and Arsenal need to take care that they are not so focused on their own local rivalry that they overlook the north-eastern threat from Newcastle who could easily come up on the outside as they have over the past couple of months and snatch the cherished prize if the London clubs don't perform on the day.

Dramatic Final Minutes Proving Costly for Spurs

Since the events of the dramatic final minutes of the game against Manchester City in late January, Spurs have suffered on the wrong end of similar situations both in their own matches and those of their nearest rivals.

 

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In the immediate aftermath of the Manchester City game, I received  a text message from my Liverpool supporting son-in-law, "Football can be so cruel!'  And so it has proved for Spurs in the subsequent seven weeks as they've seen results go against them in those final few minutes of added time, removing them from what, only ten days earlier, had seemed to be a position to mount a challenge for the title alongside the two Manchester clubs.

After the home game against Everton in mid-January, Spurs had lifted themselves level on points with United and only three behind City.  The unfortunate draw at home to Wolves rather dented their position of strength but it was the events in added time at the Etihad Stadium which were the start of the season slipping away from Spurs.

Sunday, 22nd January
Level at two all, having come back from two goals down after an hour, Spurs were finishing the stronger.  In added time Gareth Bale's break and cross gave Jermain Defoe the opportunity to put Spurs ahead but as he stretched to reach the ball, he failed to make good contact and poked it wide.  A let off for City but events got worse as in the final seconds Ledley King conceded a penalty and Balotelli whom many consider shouldn't have been on the pitch, scored to snatch the points for City.

Saturday, 11th February
An added time goal from Henry earned Arsenal three points at the Stadium of Light after Sunderland had taken the lead with twenty minutes remaining.

Saturday, 3rd March
Van Persie scored at Anfield in the 92nd minute for another Arsenal win in a 'snatch and grab' performance after they went behind in the first half.

Saturday, 10th March
In added time, having dominated the second half at Everton, Louis Saha's close range shot hit the post, bounced on to the goalkeeper's knee and away to safety.

Monday, 12th March
An added time break away goal at The Emirates against Newcastle and Arsenal had another three points.

It's not just Arsenal who've benefited in such situations, Chelsea won at Wolves with a last minute winner by Lampard who should probably have been dismissed earlier in the game.

After their win over Wigan at the end of January, there was a twelve point between Spurs and Arsenal and after half an hour of the north London derby a month later, with  a two goal lead, Spurs looked set to increase their impressive ten point advantage.  Since, then however, the gap has been reduced to a single point with ten matches remaining.  The race for third place is definitely back on and the swing in fortunes has been dictated by the events in the final minutes of those games.  Where Spurs could have won at City, they lost, while Arsenal turned three draws into victories and a late desperate attempt to snatch a point at Everton failed for Spurs.

Spurs have scored a couple of late goals this season but they only made victory secure, they weren't late match turning moments.  Throw in the late saving tackle that John Terry made for Chelsea at White Hart Lane before Christmas to deny Emmanuel Adebayor in the final moments at White Hart and although, it wasn't in added time, the late opportunity Bale had to score a winner at Anfield after defending stoutly for most of the game and Spurs have not done well out of late dramatic changes this year.  Perhaps, like refereeing decisions, they'll even themselves out over the course of the season, but somehow I doubt it.

In the dark days before Harry Redknapp, we, Spurs fans, called to 'Have our Tottenmham back'.  In recent weeks with late goals conceded, allowing a two goal lead to slip and dominating a match but losing, perhaps, actually, we have got our Tottenham back now.